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What will drive (or slow) general surgery growth in the next five years? Here’s our general surgery research team’s take. Note: Growth graphs reflect “general surgery” service line projections while the rationale below summarizes Advisory Board’s take on the drivers impacting general surgery and gastroenterology.
| Rationale | Inpatient | Outpatient |
|---|---|---|
Population changes and disease prevalence | + Growth in elderly and obese populations requiring complex surgical care + Increased risk factors and diagnoses of colorectal and breast cancer | + Growth in elderly and obese populations requiring surgical care + Increased incidences of chronic illnesses such as cirrhosis and Crohn’s disease |
Technology adoption | – Increased adoption of antibiotics and GLP-1s as an alternative to surgery – Continued adoption of minimally invasive techniques | + Continued adoption of minimally invasive techniques – Improved medical offerings are minimizing the demand for procedural care |
Insurance changes | – Payers steering low-acuity care toward lower-cost sites, like ambulatory surgery centers and endoscopy centers | – Increased cost-sharing provision in health benefit designs deters some patients from seeking care – Growth in the uninsured and under-insured populations will drive down utilization |
Care management | – Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocols decrease length of stay and readmissions – Healthier lifestyle initiatives and GLP-1 adoption lower incidences of obesity and diabetes | + Reduction of readmissions due to a continued focus on patient education and medical management of chronic illnesses + Planned preventive care will result in improved utilization of screenings
|
Madeline Vogel
Research analyst
Posted on June 03, 2025
Updated on June 03, 2025
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