As an example of how these conversations can help you prepare for the future, futurists hired by Procter and Gamble (P&G) produced a ten-year foresight statement that detergents and hair care would become leading industries for them, and that biotech would disrupt P&G’s success. Executives drew two key insights from this, recognizing that biotech was critical to the company’s future success and that their leadership team lacked necessary biotech knowledge and experience. Based on these insights, P&G implemented a proportionate action to begin preparing for the plausible, but uncertain future. They created a reverse mentoring program, pairing each of the twelve highest ranking executives at the company with a young biotech scientist, meeting monthly for a year.

Futurism is a thought framework that can help progressive leaders better strategize and prepare for innovations and disruptions to their businesses.

A futurist is a person who engages in interdisciplinary and systems thinking to explore predictions and possibilities about the future and investigate how they can emerge from the present.

There are three distinct elements of this definition: first, “engages ininterdisciplinary and systems thinking.” This means looking beyond individualsiloes and examining the future at an industry or even cross-industry level, thususing a very broad lens.

Second, “explore predictions and possibilities about the future.” Notice how thedefinition says “explore predictions,” not make predictions. That’s because thisthinking process isn’t about certainty; it’s about clarity and plausibility. Certaintycan mislead you to lock into one possibility—and one path—rather than beingopen to multiple possibilities. Instead of certainty, you need clarity about yourdestination and flexibility in how you get there.

Third, “investigate how they can emerge from the present.” In other words, thismeans looking backward from that plausible future perspective to understand thelikely paths from the present to get there and how you might get from point Atoday to point B in the future.

Health systems often have trouble responding quickly to change. While changeis inevitable in any industry, it seems like health care has faced more than its fairshare of disruptions and innovations recently. This is likely to continue as healthcare remains a focus of national attention, creating the potential to upset healthsystems’ businesses.

Employing the futurism thought framework can help mitigate this challenge byreshaping how service line leaders identify signals of disruption and manageambiguity. Futurism empowers leaders to build flexible but durable long-termstrategy, with the capacity to adjust as change occurs. Through this curiosity-driven approach, health systems can become more prepared to adapt to anuncertain future.

The futurism thought framework has three steps:

Develop foresight

Foresight is the core component of the futurism thought framework. Monitorecosystem forces, and specifically look for signals that indicate potential trendsor disruptions that could change how health care—and the world—work. Basedon these signals, formulate “foresight statements” about the world in which yourservice line will operate roughly ten years in the future. These statements shouldbe plausible and provocative, and inspire creative thinking.

Generate insight

Generating insight means asking yourself questions like: “What will the foresightmean for us?,” “What will the implications be?,” and “How well are we currentlypositioned to lead and deliver in the future?” The answers to these questions canlead to insights about your organization that will influence decisions. Keep inmind that insights are only as valuable as they are actionable.

Determine action

After generating insights about your organization’s preparedness for theplausible future state, you can work backward to develop an action plan thataddresses the opportunity or threat. This should provide a strong outcome,should your foresight prove true.

It is important to note that futurism is not about making a major change inresponse to what might happen in the future; it is about taking small steps andadjusting course as necessary. Leaders must act responsibly by maintainingflexibility in their determined action plans. Calibrating your actions in proportionto the plausibility of your foresight and insight can ensure good stewardship ofyour organization’s resources.

Identify colleagues with similar ambition to prepare for the future and establish a forum for sharing ideas. Meet routinely to discuss impending disruptions and their possible implications.

With your team, determine a few relatively narrow topics to follow for six months. Pull information from a wide range of external resources and share foresights regularly, replacing topics that aren’t sparking new insights.

Hold a strategy session to asses how well your service line is currently positioned to adapt to changing ecosystems.

Challenge yourself and your colleagues to ponder actions that will prepare you for the future you envision. Identify one action step you can commit to immediately.