The states with the biggest drops in fertility rates

According to CDC's data, the U.S. fertility rate in 2025 was 53.1 live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, which represents a new record low and a roughly 23% decline from 2007. The total number of births also decreased by 1% between 2024 and 2025 to 3,606,400 births.

In addition, the fertility rate for teenagers has dropped significantly over the past few decades. Since 1991, the fertility rate for teenagers has decreased by 81%. The fertility rate for teenagers also dropped by 7% between 2024 and 2025 alone.

All 50 U.S. states reported declines in overall fertility rates, and between 2007 and 2020 — which is the most decent data set available without preliminary data from CDC — every state but one saw its fertility rates drop by at least 10%. However, some states have experienced more significant declines in fertility rates than others.

The five states that saw the largest drops in fertility rates between 2007 and 2020 were:

1.       Arizona (-34.64%)

2.       Utah (-33.05%)

3.       New Mexico (-28.92%)

4.       Nevada (-28.24%)

5.       Oregon (-28%)

Meanwhile, the five states that saw the lowest drops in fertility rates between 2007 and 2020 were:

1.       North Dakota (-2.34%)

2.       Pennsylvania (-10.02%)

3.       Alabama (-10.34%)

4.       Michigan (-10.83%)

5.       New Jersey (-11.03%)

Wendy Manning, a demographer at Bowling Green State University and co-director of the university's National Center for Family & Marriage Research, said that the declining fertility rate is being driven by uncertainty about the future, including concerns over finances, relationship stability, and the political climate.

"People are waiting longer to enter parenthood and probably want to make sure that things are set in their lives before they do so," Manning said. "There might be a lot of uncertainty, and that might not be good for a society in general."

Martha Bailey, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that while the decline in the fertility rate might look significant, it could also reverse course. In the 1970s, the fertility rate also dropped sharply to below replacement levels, but by the time that cohort of women reached their mid-40s, they had an average of 1.9 children. Subsequent cohorts also saw their fertility rates increase, reaching an average of two children.

"They weren't opting out of motherhood, they were delaying it," Bailey said.