Heart disease rates are projected to grow significantly in women

For the study, researchers analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2020), which asks participants about their health and diet, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2015-2019), which asks individuals, families, medical providers, and employers about the cost and use of healthcare and insurance coverage. The researchers used census forecasts for population growth to estimate future cardiovascular health trends.

Between 2020 and 2050, the researchers estimated that rates of cardiovascular disease will increase from:

• 6.9% to 8.2% for coronary heart disease
• 2.5% to 3.6% for heart failure
• 4.1% to 6.7% for stroke
• 1.6% to 2.3% for atrial fibrillation

Although women ages 65 and older will continue to have the highest rates of cardiovascular disease, rates are also expected to increase significantly among younger women. By 2050, almost a third of all women ages 22 to 44 will have some type of cardiovascular disease compared to less than 25% currently.

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including high blood pressure, diabetes, and obesity, are also expected to grow significantly over time. By 2050, almost 60% of women are expected to have high blood pressure (up from less than 50%), over 25% will have diabetes (up from roughly 15%), and over 60% will have obesity (up from roughly 44%). 

Girls ages 2 to 19 are also seeing growing rates of obesity. By 2050, almost 32% of girls ages 2 to 19 will have obesity, likely driven by inadequate physical activity and poor diet. Girls of color, particularly Black girls, are expected to have higher rates of obesity compared to white girls. 

"This trend in increased health risks among girls and young women is particularly disturbing, as it indicates they will be facing chronic health issues for most of their lives," said Stacey Rosen, volunteer president of the American Heart Association, executive director of the Katz Institute for Women's Health, and SVP of women's health at Northwell Health. "Women are already at increased risk for so many of these health conditions due to factors unique to them throughout their lifespan."

Commentary

According to C. Noel Bairey Merz, director of the Barbra Streisand Women's Heart Center at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, the study's findings "should be a wake-up call for us."

"It's alarming and it's all preventable," Bairey Merz said. "That's the sad reality."

Currently, over 60 million women in the United States live with cardiovascular disease, and it is one of the leading causes of death for women in the country every year.

Rosen, president of the American Heart Association, also recommends people get regular checkups to assess their current health, discuss preventive measures, and talk about any family history of heart problems. Doctors also suggest discussing risk factors that uniquely or disproportionately affect women, like autoimmune conditions, mental health issues, and menopause.

"As a medical community, we have done a great job decreasing deaths from big cardiovascular events like heart attacks and strokes, but these data suggest that we need to really refocus our efforts on health, wellness and prevention," said Karen Joynt Maddox, a professor at the Washington University School of Medicine and the study's lead author. "We need to keep girls and women from developing cardiovascular risk factors so that they can live long, healthy lives free of cardiovascular disease, and that means being very intentional about focusing on optimal cardiovascular health across the life course."