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Around the nation: US deaths projected to exceed births by 2030


New data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that the annual number of deaths in the United States is projected to exceed the annual number of births by 2030, in today's bite-sized hospital and health industry news from California, the District of Columbia, and Illinois.  

  • California: In December, U.S. District Judge Haywood Gilliam Jr. for the Northern District of California approved a preliminary agreement for a class action lawsuit requiring Aetna to equally cover fertility treatments, such as artificial insemination or in vitro fertilization, for same-sex couples like it does for heterosexual couples. According to the Associated Press, it is the first case to require a health insurer to apply this policy nationally for all its enrollees. An estimated 2.8 million LGBTQ members, including 91,000 Californians, will benefit. The settlement also requires Aetna to pay at least $2 million in damages to eligible members based in California. "I truly hope that this is the first of many insurers to change their policy," said Alison Tanner, senior litigation counsel for reproductive rights and health at the National Women's Law Center. "We were looking at that as an issue of inequality — that folks who were in same-sex relationships were being treated differently." (Hwang, Associated Press, 12/22/25)
  • District of Columbia: According to a new CBO report, the annual number of deaths in the United States is projected to exceed the annual number of births by 2030. Between 2026 and 2056, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 349 million people to 364 million. The rate of population growth is expected to slow over the next 30 years, falling from an average of 0.3% annually in the next 10 years to 0.1% annually from 2037 to 2056. Starting in 2056, the U.S. population is expected to stop growing, remain the same size as the year before, and then shrink. The U.S. population is also expected to become older on average, with the cohort of Americans ages 65 and older growing at an annual average rate of 1.6%, which is faster than younger cohorts. As the population ages, hospitals and health systems will face new challenges. "This demographic shift is increasing demand for care while simultaneously shrinking the workforce," said Maria Ansari, co-CEO of The Permanente Federation and CEO of the three of Kaiser Permanente's medical groups. "C-suites will need to navigate reimbursement pressures, inpatient capacity constraints, and bottlenecks in post-acute care that can delay patient discharge. Care redesign will need to focus on more care at home and in the ambulatory space." (Kuchno, Becker's Clinical Leadership, 1/9)
  • Illinois: According to a new study published in JAMA, risk-based screening for breast cancer works as well as annual screenings after age 40. In the study, researchers randomly assigned 14,212 participants to be screened for breast cancer based on individual risk while 14,160 participants received routine annual mammograms. Each person in the risk-based screening group underwent a comprehensive evaluation before being placed into a risk group. Those with the lowest risk were told to wait until age 50 to start receiving mammograms while those with the highest risk were told to get screened twice a year, once with a mammogram and once with an MRI, regardless of their age. Overall, researchers found that risk-based screening was just as effective at detecting tumors as universal yearly screening. "This is the first randomized trial of risk-based screening, and the results are great, actually," said Laura Esserman, the study's lead author and the director of the breast care center at the University of California, San Francisco. "We don't treat breast cancer as if it's one disease anymore, so it really doesn't make sense for us to screen as if everyone has the same risk for the same disease." (Rabin, New York Times, 12/12/25)

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