New Covid-19 cases have dropped almost 60% since September and are projected to drop about 20% over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble of forecast models gathered by CDC.

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What the forecast for Covid-19 looks like

According to data from the Washington Post, the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases was around 69,000 this past week, representing a 58% drop since Sept. 13 when new, delta-driven cases were at 164,475.

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However, the national decline in cases has not been seen in every state. Montana, for example, has 45 out of every 100,000 people in the United States hospitalized with Covid-19, marking the highest current hospitalization rate in the country. Just over half of Montana residents are fully vaccinated, below the national benchmark of 57.5%.

Meanwhile, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Utah, and Vermont have also struggled to slow the surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths caused by the delta variant, the Post reports.

But an ensemble of 20 modeling groups gathered by CDC forecast a more optimistic national case level over the next three weeks, projecting new Covid-19 cases will drop by about 20%.

On average, the forecasting models project there will be just under 380,000 new Covid-19 cases reported for the week of Nov. 14, which would represent the lowest number of weekly reported Covid-19 cases since July. (Jeong/Suliman, Washington Post, 10/27; Masson, Becker's Hospital Review, 10/26)