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October 28, 2021

Will Covid-19 cases keep falling? See CDC's projections, charted.

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    New Covid-19 cases have dropped almost 60% since September and are projected to drop about 20% over the next three weeks, according to an ensemble of forecast models gathered by CDC.

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    What the forecast for Covid-19 looks like

    According to data from the Washington Post, the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases was around 69,000 this past week, representing a 58% drop since Sept. 13 when new, delta-driven cases were at 164,475.

    However, the national decline in cases has not been seen in every state. Montana, for example, has 45 out of every 100,000 people in the United States hospitalized with Covid-19, marking the highest current hospitalization rate in the country. Just over half of Montana residents are fully vaccinated, below the national benchmark of 57.5%.

    Meanwhile, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Utah, and Vermont have also struggled to slow the surge of Covid-19 cases and deaths caused by the delta variant, the Post reports.

    But an ensemble of 20 modeling groups gathered by CDC forecast a more optimistic national case level over the next three weeks, projecting new Covid-19 cases will drop by about 20%.

    On average, the forecasting models project there will be just under 380,000 new Covid-19 cases reported for the week of Nov. 14, which would represent the lowest number of weekly reported Covid-19 cases since July. (Jeong/Suliman, Washington Post, 10/27; Masson, Becker's Hospital Review, 10/26)

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