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Think beyond physicians

To accurately account for primary care supply in your market, add advanced practitioners to the market's provider count. Nationally, there are 2.9 million nurses, of whom 141,100 are advanced-practice registered nurses (APRNs) providing primary care. Planners must scan the market and estimate the number of APs and NPs who serve primary care patients.

Market scan: Review 4 primary care models for geriatric patients

Account for a part-time and retiring workforce

Then, planners must also gauge what percentage of the workforce is full-time vs. part-time, as well as the retirement risk of current providers. For example, a recent study found the median retirement age for primary care physicians is 64.9 years, and that almost 78,000 primary care physicians are between the ages of 55 and 80.  These variables could significantly affect your supply analysis today as well in the next five to 10 years.

Adjust for alternative sites of care

Aside from including other primary care providers and considering their employment contracts, planners must also account for significant variations in alternative sites of care. Urgent care centers, retail clinics, and even telehealth services are not growing substantially in number, but they are becoming many patients' go-to location for primary-care needs. Therefore, planners must attribute some primary-care volumes to these alternative sites, alleviating some of the primary-care demand burden in their market.