Four steps to calculate PCP undersupply or oversupply

Primary care is an integral part of the health care ecosystem, with primary care physicians (PCPs) and advanced practice providers (APPs) often acting as the first – and sometimes only – contact point for patients. While recent estimates indicate the US will see a shortage of up to 48,000 primary care providers by 2034, which rivals projections for all other specialties combined, this shortage will not affect all markets equally.

As burnout, preferences for fewer hours, other lingering aspects of Covid-19, and alternate employment options persist, it will be increasingly important to understand your local primary care need. While primary care supply and demand can be calculated using various methods, a visit-based approach can help organizations best understand and prepare for a potential primary care shortage in their markets.