US healthcare spending to hit almost $9T by 2034

In 2025, U.S. healthcare spending increased by 7.3% to reach $5.7 trillion, marking the third consecutive year that health spending rose above 7% — a trend the authors of the report said is likely to continue to increase.

Last year, U.S. healthcare spending made up 18.4% of the national gross domestic product (GDP), up from 18% in 2024. In 2026, the report projects healthcare spending will rise to $6 trillion, or 18.7% of the GDP, and by 2034, the report projects national healthcare spending will hit $8.97 trillion, or 20.6% of the GDP.

Hospital spending remained the largest category of medical services, rising 8.2% last year to $1.8 trillion while physician and clinical services spending rose 6.2% to $1.2 trillion and overall prescription drug spending rose 11.1% to $518.7 billion.

Going forward, new policies under the Trump administration are expected to change the insurance landscape in the United States, which will have an effect on healthcare spending. In 2024, 91.8% of the U.S. population had insurance, but that figure is expected to drop to 90.8% this year before dropping even more to 90.5% by 2034, the report said.

That's largely due to the expiration of enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans and Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which was passed last year.

"Together, these legislative provisions play a role in reducing the insured share of the population," Fiore said.

According to the report authors, provisions in OBBBA, such as restrictions to mechanisms states use to increase their Medicaid funding and work requirements implemented for certain Medicaid enrollees, will lead to Medicaid spending growth to slow this year.

In addition, private health insurance spending is expected to moderate this year due to lower ACA coverage rates after the expiration of the enhanced subsidies. However, Fiore noted that per-enrollee spending is likely to increase as people who stayed in the ACA exchanges are likely to be sicker and require higher spending for their care.