After a summer with little activity, the bird flu virus, also known as H5N1, has hit dozens of poultry flocks, resulting in the deaths of almost 7 million farmed birds — including around 1.3 million turkeys, which could put pressure on the nation's supply ahead of Thanksgiving.
Bird flu returns
The bird flu virus typically flares up in the fall as wild birds start migrating south. The virus has "settled into this seasonal pattern," said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. "This is going to continue to be the new norm."
Wild birds often spread the virus to poultry farms in a few different ways, either through direct contact, by contaminating feed, or when workers bring contaminated materials into barns.
"If you got one sick bird that moves over an area, infects some others, the math suggests it's going to spread really fast," said Michael Ward, a professor of natural resources and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois.
Ward added that habitat limitations are forcing birds to congregate and share space, which makes it easier for the virus to spread.
Since early 2022, H5N1 has affected more than 180 million farmed birds and killed many wild ones. The virus has also infected dozens of new species, suggesting it has evolved over time. Early last year, H5N1 infected dairy cows, eventually spreading to more than 1,000 herds in 18 states. It also infected at least 70 people resulting in several hospitalizations and one death.
Reports of infected birds have surged this fall. Since September, almost 7 million farmed birds have been impacted by bird flu outbreaks, including around 1.3 million turkeys. In October alone, nearly 514,000 turkeys have been infected by the bird flu, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
An outbreak on a commercial egg-layer farm with 19,600 birds was reported in Lagrange County, Indiana, while Pennsylvania's Lancaster County has reported two outbreaks of 1,200 and 2,800 birds. A commercial turkey farm in Swift County, Minnesota that houses 34,000 birds has also reported an outbreak. Meanwhile, Idaho reported bird flu detections on a farm in Payette County that houses 11,600 birds as well as in a 90-bird backyard flock in Canyon County. Iowa also reported its first positive bird flu case last week on a turkey farm in Calhoun County.
In addition, three states — Idaho, Nebraska, and Texas — have identified outbreaks in dairy cows.
Exacerbating the issue is the ongoing government shutdown, which has caused many federal agencies typically involved in responding to outbreaks to work with a skeletal staff.
CDC, which tracks human cases, and USDA, which monitors animal outbreaks, have both suspended routine communication with states, which has left many officials without any current guidance on how to detect and contain bird flu, or a clear idea of what the surge looks like nationwide.
The National Animal Laboratory Health Network, which is coordinated by USDA, has also suspended its weekly calls that allow labs that play a critical role in bird flu surveillance to share data.
Turkey prices soar
The resurgence of bird flu means that, as the holidays are approaching, Americans could see higher prices for turkeys and eggs.
As a result of bird flu outbreaks, the turkey flock in the United States has shrunk to its smallest size in 40 years. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, wholesale turkey prices are up 40%, climbing to $1.32 per pound. So far this year, 195 million turkeys have been raised, which is down 3% year over year and down 36% from the peak in 1996.
USDA said it expects 4.8 billion pounds of turkey to be produced this year, 5% below 2024. Although the National Turkey Federation said there will be enough turkeys for Thanksgiving, supply could tighten for fresh or specific-size birds if H5N1 continues to accelerate.
"U.S. turkey growers and processors have been working around the clock, managing through challenges like avian influenza and avian metapneumovirus," said Leslee Oden, president and CEO of the National Turkey Federation.
"We feel confident in the frozen turkey supply, and while there's been an uptick in bird flu cases, we do not see those impacting overall supply right now," Oden added.
As the fall progresses, officials and experts say they're in wait-and-see mode.
"It's an interesting time," said Declan Schroeder, an associate professor of virology at the University of Minnesota's College of Veterinary Medicine. "Everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what's going to happen."
(Anthes/Mandavilli, New York Times, 10/22; Tyko, Axios, 10/19; Soucheray, CIDRAP News, 10/22; Bush, NBC News, 10/9)
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