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TX floods killed 130 and 160 are still missing. Is extreme weather a new norm?


Over the July 4 weekend, areas of central Texas received torrential rain that led to flash floods, causing at least 130 deaths and billions of dollars in total damage. As extreme weather becomes more common, experts are concerned about whether communities are prepared to handle such events.

Texas floods cause 130 deaths

On July 2, the Texas Division of Emergency Management activated "state emergency response resources in anticipation of increased threats of flooding in parts of West and Central Texas" ahead of the July 4 weekend.

The next day, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center upgraded certain areas of south-central Texas to a level two of four risk for excessive rainfall. Later that day, the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office issued a flood watch, which was later upgraded to a flash flood warning in the early hours of July 4.

According to Accuweather, seven months' worth of rain fell in the region in less than two hours. This caused the Guadalupe River to rise 22 feet in two hours, with water levels increasing up to 29.5 feet before a gauge measuring the data stopped transmitting.

Since then, catastrophic flooding in the region has destroyed homes, vehicles, and entire community blocks. The estimated cost for total damage and economic loss is between $18 billion and $22 billion.

So far, at least 130 people have been confirmed dead, and over 170 people are still missing. Some of the deaths include campers and staff from Camp Mystic, which is located along the Guadalupe River.

"I've never seen anything this tragic in my life," said Scott Ruskan, a member of the U.S. Coast Guard who helped rescue 165 children from Camp Mystic. "They're having probably the worst day of their life. They're missing friends. They're missing loved ones. They don't know where they are. Some of them may be unaccounted for. Some of them may be somewhere else."

Recovery operations continue to be underway. "Right now, our number one job is to find every single missing person," said Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in a post on X. "We will not leave until that job is done."

Extreme weather events are going to get worse

According to climate scientists and government data, climate change has made extreme weather events, including the flooding in Texas, more frequent and intense. Compared to the 1980s, the 10-year summer average of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) climate extreme index is now 58% higher. This index tracks hurricanes, heavy rain, droughts, and high and low temperatures.

 

"What happens with climate change is that what used to be extreme becomes average, typical, and what used to never occur in a human lifetime or maybe even in a thousand years becomes the new extreme," said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University. "We start to experience things that just basically never happened before."

As extreme weather gets worse, Kim Klockow McClain, an extreme weather social scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, said people need to shift how they think about disasters, even if they live in relatively safe areas. 

"The message needs to be, if you're used to some degree of nuisance flooding, every so often, look at what happened in Texas and realize that this is a shifting baseline," she said.

To better prepare for natural disasters and reduce the impact of climate change, experts say that the United States needs to work on improving warning systems, shoring up infrastructure, and switching to solar and wind power.

However, recent funding and staffing cuts from the Trump administration may make it harder for communities to prepare for and respond to extreme weather.

Earlier this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Weather Service, NOAA research labs, and the U.S. Geological Survey were part of the Trump's administration's mass layoffs and funding cuts. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also canceled over $200 million in spending that was meant to help improve weather forecasting and boost communities' resilience to natural disasters.

In addition, Chad Berginnis, executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, said the Trump administration has denied what has typically been routine requests for federal assistance after a disaster. The administration has also not approved funding for hazard mitigation grant programs in several states, which could help them finance early warning systems for natural disasters.

Overall, Oppenheimer said that society is not acting with enough urgency to address worsening climate change and natural disasters.

"There's plenty of evidence that we sit there and do absolutely nothing while these risks are coming right at us like a moving railroad train and we're standing in the tracks," Oppenheimer said. "And then all of a sudden, bam."

(Shalvey, ABC News, 7/14; NBC News, 7/10; El-Bawab, et al., ABC News, 7/8; Lada, Accuweather, 7/10; Borenstein, Associated Press, 7/9; Kekatos, ABC News, 7/7; Colman, et al., Politico, 7/8)


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