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Trump says 200% pharma tariffs are coming 'very soon'


President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical imports — something that could lead to increased costs and lead to drug shortages. However, investors have expressed skepticism about whether the massive tariffs will go through, calling them "impractical" and "highly inflationary."

Where tariffs currently stand

Earlier this year, Trump announced tariffs on specific countries, including Canada, Mexico, and China, before announcing wide-ranging tariffs of 10% on all countries, as well as individualized reciprocal tariffs for certain countries with large trade deficits.

Although the deadline for other countries to negotiate trade deals was originally July 9, it has since been pushed back to Aug. 1. Currently, only the United Kingdom and Vietnam have negotiated trade deals with the United States, with U.K. imports being taxed at 10% and Vietnamese imports being taxed at 20%.

Currently, there is a 10% minimum tariff on almost all goods imported into the United States, aside from a few exceptions such as cellphones and computers. Imports from China have a higher tariff rate of 30%. Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, may also see higher tariffs of 25%.

Trump has also imposed additional tariffs on certain goods, such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Outside of agreements with specific countries, steel and aluminum tariffs are set at 50%, and tariffs for imported cars and car parts are set at 25%. The administration is also considering additional tariffs for copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber.

Trump threatens 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals

In April, Trump announced that pharmaceutical imports would soon be subject to "major" tariffs as part of an effort to drive manufacturing back the United States. At the time, no details were provided about the scope of the tariffs, but Trump had previously suggested a 25% or higher tariff rate for pharmaceuticals.

On Tuesday, Trump suggested that he would impose much higher tariffs on pharmaceutical imports "very soon."

"If they have to bring the pharmaceuticals into the country, the drugs and other things into the country, they're going to be tariffed at a very, very high rate, like 200 percent," he said during a Cabinet meeting.

"A 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals is more than just a pricing issue — it's a shock to the healthcare supply chain."

However, Trump added that he would "give people about a year, year and a half" to prepare for any pharmaceutical tariffs. "We'll give them a certain period of time to get their act together," he said.

According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, details about pharma tariffs "will come at the end of the month."

"With pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, those studies are being completed at the end of the month, and so the president will then set his policies then, and I’m going to let him wait to decide how he’s going to do it," Lutnick said.

Reaction

According to Derek Kazahaya, a senior director at Optum Advisory*, "a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals is more than just a pricing issue — it's a shock to the healthcare supply chain. Even with a holding period, hospitals and suppliers are being forced to rethink sourcing strategies, inventory planning, and long-term contracts. Generic drugs, which already operate on really thin margins, are especially at risk for shortages and price volatility."

"While the goal of reshoring production makes sense on paper, implementing too fast without clear support measures could mean fewer options, higher costs, and slower access for patients across the country," Kazahaya added. 

Similarly, investment management group Capstone said, "the US will face drug shortages as branded manufacturers encounter increased costs for component imports, and generic manufacturers ultimately elect to exit the US market to protect already razor-thin margins" if 200% pharma tariffs are enacted.

Even lower tariffs could have a significant impact on U.S. healthcare, with a recent report from Ernst & Young finding that a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical imports could increase national drug costs by almost $51 billion.

However, investors are skeptical that pharma tariffs will be raised that high, saying that the threat may just be part of Trump's negotiating strategy.

"No one is taking it seriously," said Emily Field, an analyst at Barclays. "The idea of the Taco trade [Trump always chickens out] still prevails."

Separately, a pharmaceutical industry analyst from Mumbai said that 200% pharma tariffs look "impractical" and "highly inflationary."

"I don't think too many people have taken [it] very seriously," the analyst said.

In response to the potential 200% pharma tariffs, the Pharmaceutical Research & Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) reiterated a statement pushing back on any tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.

"Every dollar spent on tariffs is a dollar that cannot be invested in American manufacturing or the development of future treatments and cures for patients," said Alex Schriver, SVP of public affairs for PhRMA.

"The industry shares President Trump's goal of revitalizing American manufacturing and has recently announced hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. investment, but placing tariffs on medicines would be counterproductive to these efforts," Schriver added. "Medicines have historically been exempt from tariffs because they can increase costs and lead to shortages."

*Advisory Board is a subsidiary of Optum. All Advisory Board research, expert perspectives, and recommendations remain independent.

(Kuchler, et al., Financial Times, 7/9; Weixel, The Hill, 7/8; Constantino, CNBC, 7/8; Horsley, NPR, 7/9; Buchwald, CNN, 7/8)

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