Daily Briefing

Charted: US fertility rates are (finally) on the rise


In 2021, U.S. fertility rates among women aged 15 to 44 rose to 56.3 births per 1,000 women, reversing a downward trend that has persisted since 2014, according to a new CDC report released Tuesday.

 

US fertility rates increase for the first time in 7 years

In the report, CDC's National Center for Health Statistics reported 3,664,292 births in 2021, marking a 1% increase from 2020. From 2014 to 2019, U.S. births decreased by an average of 1% annually, with a decline of 4% from 2019 to 2020.

By state, the number of births increased in 16 states from 2020 to 2021 and declined in one state, New Mexico.

In addition, the report found that the fertility rate for U.S. women aged 15 to 44 rose to 56.3 births per 1,000 women. The report found that the total U.S. fertility rate was below "replacement" in 2021, following the same pattern it has for decades.

On average, the age of a first-time mother reached a record high of 27.3 years old in 2021, with an increase in birth rates among women ages 25 to 44 and record low birth rates among teens.

While births increased among white and Hispanic women in 2021, the report found that they decreased among Black, Asian, and American Indian women.

Meanwhile, the report found that the preterm birth rate reached a record high, making up 10.49% of all births in 2021. The share of babies delivered by C-section with low birth weight also increased in 2021. According to a large international review, babies born to women who had COVID-19 faced an increased risk for preterm birth and low birth weights.

Commentary

An earlier report from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggested that the decline experienced in 2020 may not reflect the pandemic's effect on conception as much as it showed travel trends. According to NBER's researchers, the report suggested that "childbearing in the US among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began."

Instead, NBER said it identified a small "baby bump" among U.S.-born mothers.

While CDC's report did not evaluate potential reasons for the 2021 increase,  data from Pew Research Center suggests that U.S. women put off having children during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic because of uncertainty surrounding public health and the economy, meaning the increase could be the result of a rebound.

According to Sarah Hayford, director of Ohio State University's Institute for Population Research, who was not involved in CDC's report, keeping track of birth trends provides a population-level perspective that can help with infrastructure planning and government programs.

In addition, Hayford noted that each birth ultimately has an important personal perspective.

"Being a parent or not being a parent is a really important part of a lot of people's identities. It's a really important part of people's social relationships and social networks," she said. "So understanding who's becoming a parent and when and in what family contexts helps us understand the kinds of lives people are living and if they're reaching the goals they have for themselves." (McPhillips, CNN, 1/31; Osterman et al., National Vital Statistics report, 1/31; Kekatos, ABC News, 1/31; Hou, The Hill, 1/31)


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