In the Senate, Democrats are looking to gain ground through a mix of open-seat opportunities and competitive challenges against Republican incumbents in states like Maine, Alaska, and Texas. Meanwhile, Republicans are targeting vulnerable Democrat-held seats and hoping to capitalize on favorable electoral geography in states like Ohio and Minnesota.

The fight for the House is even more complicated. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, meaning Democrats need to net just a handful of seats to reclaim control. While dozens of House districts are considered competitive, a smaller group of battleground races offers the clearest snapshot of each party's path to a majority.

Together, these Senate and House contests will help determine not only which party controls Congress in 2027, but also the political environment heading into the 2028 presidential election.

The 11 Senate races to watch in the 2026 midterms

Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D)

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, who became nationally known after winning a special House election in 2022. While Alaska generally favors Republicans in federal races, Peltola's crossover appeal and the state's ranked-choice voting history make the race competitive. Available polling shows a closely divided electorate, with most polls placing the candidates within a few points of each other.

However, the New York Times last week published a story in which Peltola's former campaign manager stated that Peltola's campaign actively worked to recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan to run for Senate in an effort to potentially pull votes away from Sen. Sullivan. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from a small fishing village along the Alaskan Panhandle, is currently also running for Senate alongside Sen. Sullivan and Peltola.

While it's unclear whether the news will affect Peltola's chances at winning the seat, the Department of Justice has attempted to block certification of the Alaskan race if Sen. Sullivan loses, arguing Peltola's campaign "attempt[ed] to rig" the election. A federal judge on Sunday dismissed the lawsuit.

Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is attempting to keep Iowa's Senate seat for Republicans after Sen. Joni Ernst chose not to run again. Democrats nominated state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic medalist and rising figure in state politics. Polling has generally shown a razor-thin contest, with different polls alternating between slight leads for each candidate.

Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is seeking reelection against Adam Hamilton, pastor at the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist church in the country. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s. However, Democrats have pointed to a series of competitive statewide races in recent years, including Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's victories and strong Democratic performances in suburban Kansas City.

Recent polling has shown Hamilton gaining ground in recent weeks, with some polls showing Hamilton having as much as a 10-point lead over Marshall and as little as a one-point lead.

Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D)

Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who was first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term against former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson. Maine has long been considered a pickup opportunity for Democrats given its leftward trend in federal elections, however, Collins has repeatedly outperformed her party statewide. Polling shows an exceptionally close race. However, recent polls have shown Jackson gaining ground, with the most recent poll from the New York Times and the Siena Research Institute giving him a six-point advantage.

Michigan: Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Michigan's Senate seat became available after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not seek reelection. Republicans have nominated former congressman Mike Rogers while Democrats nominated former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. Polling has consistently shown this as one of the closest Senate races in the country, though several recent polls have given El-Sayed an advantage, with the most recent poll from the New York Times and Siena giving El-Sayed an 11-point lead.

Minnesota: Michele Tafoya (R) vs. Peggy Flanagan (D)

Minnesota's Senate seat opened after Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced she would not seek reelection. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan while Republicans turned to former sports broadcaster and conservative commentator Michele Tafoya. While Minnesota has consistently voted Democratic in presidential elections, Republicans have made gains statewide in recent cycles. Polling has shown a competitive race, with most recent polls showing a single-digit advantage for Flanagan.

Ohio: Jon Husted (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)

This special election was triggered after Vice President JD Vance's Senate seat became vacant. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who now faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Despite Ohio's recent Republican-leaning trend, Brown has a long history of outperforming Democratic nominees statewide. Recent polling has consistently shown a highly competitive race, with most recent polls giving Brown a small lead.

South Carolina: Darline Graham Nordone (R) vs. Annie Andrews (D)

Republican Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, who was appointed to complete the term of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, is running against Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews. Although South Carolina typically favors Republicans in federal elections (President Donald Trump won the state by nearly 18 points in the 2024 election, for example), the race has tightened considerably. Recent polling has shown a slight single-digit advantage for Graham Nordone, however, the most recent poll from the New York Times and Siena showed the race as a tie.

Texas: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Cornyn's seat and now faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has emerged as one of the party's highest-profile statewide figures. Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, but polling has shown a surprisingly competitive race, with several recent polls placing the candidates within the margin of error and some giving Talarico a modest advantage.

The 9 House races to watch in the 2026 midterms

AZ-6: Juan Ciscomani (R) vs. JoAnna Mendoza (D)

Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term in one of the country's most competitive swing districts. Democrats have nominated former Marine and local official JoAnna Mendoza, who has emerged as one of the party's top House recruits. The Tucson-area district has frequently produced close elections and remains closely divided politically. Recent polling has generally shown Mendoza holding a narrow advantage, though the race remains well within the margin of error.

CA-22: David Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)

Republican Rep. David Valadao is once again defending one of California's most closely contested districts. Democrats nominated educator and community advocate Randy Villegas in a race that could play a major role in determining House control. Although the Central Valley district has historically been competitive, recent redistricting changes may make it somewhat more favorable to Democrats. Available polling has suggested a closely fought race.

CO-8: Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)

Freshman Republican Rep. Gabe Evans is defending Colorado's newest congressional district against Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel. Since its creation, the district has become one of the country's premier battlegrounds, with both parties investing heavily in the race. The seat sits in Denver's northern suburbs, an area that has experienced significant political shifts in recent years.

IA-2: Joe Mitchell (R) vs. Lindsay James (D)

Iowa's 2nd District is an open seat after Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson opted to run for Senate instead of seeking reelection. Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James faces former Republican state Rep. Joe Mitchell in the general election. The lack of an incumbent has helped make the race one of the country's most competitive House contests, with a recent poll from Emerson College and Poll Vault giving James a very slight advantage.

MI-7: Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D)

Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, elected in 2024, is seeking reelection against Democrat William Lawrence. The Lansing-based district has become one of Michigan's key federal battlegrounds and closely mirrors the state's broader political divisions. Both parties view the seat as critical to their House majority prospects, particularly given Michigan's importance in recent presidential elections.

MI-10: Michael Bouchard (R) vs. Christina Hines (D)

Michigan's 10th District is open after Republican Rep. John James decided to run for governor rather than seek reelection. Democrat Christina Hines, a former prosecutor, faces Republican Michael Bouchard, an Army veteran, for the seat. The race is considered highly competitive, although forecasters disagree slightly on which party has the advantage, with Cook Political Report rating it as a toss-up, Inside Elections rating it as "Tilt Republican," and RealClearPolling rating it as "Lean Democratic."

NY-17: Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is defending a suburban Hudson Valley district that Democrats see as one of their top pickup opportunities. Democrats nominated former national security official Cait Conley, whose campaign has benefited from the district's slight Democratic lean at the presidential level. Recent polling has shown a narrow race, including an Emerson College poll that placed Conley ahead by two points.

NC-1: Laurie Buckhout (R) vs. Don Davis (D)

Democratic Rep. Don Davis is seeking reelection against Republican businesswoman and Army veteran Laurie Buckhout. Eastern North Carolina's 1st District has become increasingly competitive in recent cycles, with Republicans targeting the seat as part of their effort to offset Democratic gains elsewhere. While public polling has been relatively limited, analysts continue to view the race as highly competitive due to the district's closely divided electorate and its tendency to produce narrow statewide margins.

PA-1: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Bob Harvie (D)

Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, first elected to Congress in 2016, is seeking reelection against Democrat Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner and former high school teacher. The race is competitive, with a recent poll from the New York Times and Siena showing a very slight two-point advantage for Harvie.