Understand Our New CV Volume Forecasts

We recently updated our inpatient and outpatient forecasts for CV services to reflect changes in the market and utilization rates. Read on to learn what’s driving these changes.

Shift Away from Inpatient CV Services Continuing

It probably comes as no surprise that we are predicting continued downward pressure on inpatient volumes, as procedures continue to migrate to outpatient and ambulatory settings. Between 2017 and 2022 we are therefore forecasting overall reductions of inpatient cardiac and vascular services of 9.7 and 11.2 percent, respectively. There are several factors driving the shift away from inpatient services, but principal among them are greater regulatory oversight of short-stay admissions (e.g., the Two-Midnight Rule), efforts to reduce readmissions, continued appropriateness scrutiny for procedures that can be safely performed in outpatient settings, and efforts to enhance patient access.

The decline in inpatient procedures is mirrored by a rise in projected outpatient volumes. Indeed, we are projecting a net increase in outpatient services greater than the net decrease in inpatient services, with outpatient cardiac and vascular services projected to increase 12.2 and 18.5 percent respectively in the next five years. This projected growth illustrates important trends in the patient population that are likely to increase demand for CV services in the future, notably aging and high rates of chronic disease.

With these broad trends in mind, let’s look a little bit deeper to see how demand is shifting for individual subservice lines.

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