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Medicare spending projected to double by 2022

CBO revises cost projections for federal health programs

Topics: Medicare, Reimbursement, Finance

March 14, 2012

Medicare spending is expected to nearly double over the next decade to $1.058 trillion in fiscal year (FY) 2022, compared with $565.3 billion in FY 2011, according to new budget projections released on Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Meanwhile, Medicare's annual spending rate is expected to decelerate from 7.6% in FY 2011 to 1.3% in FY 2012, before increasing to 10.7% by FY 2022.

The agency also estimated that Medicaid spending will increase from $275 billion in FY 2011 to $622 billion in FY 2022, with the highest rate of growth projected at 11% in fee-for-service critical care.

CBO also revised its previous projections for enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans. The agency had said that enrollment would decline from 11.2 million in 2013 to 8.7 million in 2021, but it now expects enrollment to rise to 13.3 million in 2013 before falling in 2022 to about 11 million (Daly, Modern Healthcare, 3/13 [subscription required]).

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